Anticipating Tomorrow’s Choices
As conversations about solar radiation modification (SRM) grow more urgent, the central governance question is shifting. It’s no longer only about what rules or processes should exist, but whether the people and institutions most affected are prepared for the political, financial, and social pressures SRM is already creating. SRM Governance Horizons is DSG’s effort to examine that challenge head-on by assessing readiness not as technological capacity, but as the civic and institutional ability to access information, exercise authority, uphold representation, and maintain legitimacy.
Mapping the Forces That Could Shape SRM Trajectories
The initiative tracks key drivers and early warning indicators to understand how SRM pressures might evolve and how quietly made decisions or market incentives could shape long-term trajectories before public institutions can respond. This is anticipatory governance focused on legitimacy rather than forecasting or implied deployment. While scenarios help identify where readiness breaks down, the heart of the work lies in understanding how power, private-sector influence, IP dynamics, and broader socio-political forces may shape SRM’s future. Through narrative analyses, partner testing, and targeted expert engagement, SRM Governance Horizons strengthens DSG’s aim: ensuring that governments, communities, and public-interest institutions are equipped to shape SRM governance rather than be overtaken by events.


Core Focus Areas:
Use readiness criteria—information access, decision authority, representation, legitimacy, and the ability to slow or stop harmful trajectories—to assess governance strength.
Collaborate with experts in other technology sectors to identify readiness failures, early warning signs, and adaptable governance mechanisms. A first convening will be academically focused; a second will bring in affected communities, civil society, and policymakers.
Analyze how venture capital logic and private-sector incentives shape SRM development. Identify governance tools that reinforce public oversight, transparency, and public-interest decision-making.
Systematically track SRM-related patents and assess their implications for public access and governance. Explore options such as defensive licensing, commons-based approaches, and patent pools.
Convene legal scholars, civil society leaders, and governance experts to co-design equitable frameworks that strengthen public control and protect against unilateral or privatized SRM decisions.
Develop legal safeguards and institutional structures capable of responding to SRM pressures in ways that uphold accountability and protect against power imbalances. This work supports legitimacy for whatever choices societies ultimately make
None of these lines of work presumes or prepares for deployment; each is designed to secure legitimacy and accountability for whatever choices societies make.
